Forest and Land Fire Susceptibility Mapping Using Kernel Density and Weighted Overlay Approaches in West Sumatra, 2021–2025

Neyla Latifah; Letmi Dwiridal; Harman Amir; Syafri Syafri

doi:10.20414/konstan.v11i01.961

Neyla Latifah Fisika, Universitas Negeri Padang
Letmi Dwiridal Padang State University
Harman Amir Padang State University
Syafri Syafri Padang State University

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20414/konstan.v11i01.961

Keywords: Fire Susceptibility Mapping, Geographic Information System (GIS), Kernel Density, Pesisir Selatan, Weighted Overlay

Abstract

Forest and land fires are a recurring environmental disaster in Indonesia. Fire occurrence is influenced by various factors, including hotspot density, rainfall, and land cover. West Sumatra is classified as a region prone to forest and land fires, with characteristics that differ between areas. Therefore, susceptibility mapping is very important to support more effective mitigation efforts. This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of hotspot density using the Kernel Density method and to develop a forest and land fire susceptibility index through the integration of hotspot density, rainfall, and land cover parameters using the Weighted Overlay method in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The data used include hotspots for the 2021–2025 period from NASA FIRMS, rainfall for the 2021–2025 period from CHIRPS, and 2024 land cover from Earthdata. The analysis was carried out at a spatial resolution of approximately 500 m using the Natural Breaks (Jenks) classification. Parameter weighting refers to previous research in Riau Province, with weights of 67.5% for hotspots, 25.7% for land cover, and 6.8% for rainfall. The results show that the highest hotspot density is concentrated in Pesisir Selatan Regency, while Dharmasraya and Pasaman Barat Regencies fall into the medium category. The resulting susceptibility map shows that Pesisir Selatan Regency falls into the very high class, with an index value of 3.2811–4.4760, while the Mentawai Islands fall into the very low class, with an index value of 0.9330–1.2942. Validation using 2024 burned area data shows that approximately 80.40% of the burned area falls within the high and very high susceptibility classes, indicating that the resulting susceptibility map has a fairly good spatial correspondence with actual fire occurrence. The results of this study can be used as supporting information for forest and land fire mitigation efforts in West Sumatra.

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